In the US, contradictions within the ruling classes are intensifying, evolving into a conflict. Despite court orders, the Texas National Guard continued to obstruct the US Border Patrol and placed barbed wire on January 23, signaling their defiance. This action was supported by governors from 25 Republican states through a joint declaration, aligning with Texas. This issue highlights the growing conflict between Republicans and the Biden administration, indicating a rift within the American bourgeoisie.
On February 5, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, alongside 14 Republican governors, held a press conference as a show of defiance against Biden and the federal government, signaling a united stance on border security among these 15 states towards President Joe Biden.
DECLINING GLOBAL POWER
The US, despite holding significant military, political, and economic power since the 1950s, is now a diminishing force. Its established international order is fracturing, with many direct military interventions in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria ending in defeat. Lacking influential power in Central Asia and failing in its strategy to encircle China through allies in Southeast Asia and beyond, the US is stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine. The Biden administration is cornered, influenced by dynamics in foreign policy.
Key contradictions within the US elite include issues with Ukraine, Israel, immigration, and strategic stalemates against China.
UKRAINE: ‘HONORABLE’ RETREAT?
The US faces two options in Ukraine: negotiate with Russia and share influence in Europe for an ‘honorable retreat,’ or extend the conflict at all costs, risking all military-financial investments. The faction led by Trump prefers the former, while Wall Street elites are starting to lean towards negotiation, questioning whether American imperialism will continue its reckless pursuit of global dominion or opt for a strategic retreat to preserve Wall Street’s profits and maintain its leading position.
CONFLICT OVER ISRAEL
While American policymakers outwardly support Israel across nearly all bourgeois factions, internal limits and conflicts, even evident in the Epstein scandal, persist. The question arises whether the bourgeoisie will continue unconditional support for Israel, even risking total war with Iran, or seek a more secure exit strategy. Interestingly, both the Biden and Trump factions prefer the latter approach, with Biden possibly more inclined to continue the conflict, suggesting a calmer Trump stance towards cleaning up the Middle East mess created by Israel.
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION ISSUE
Illegal immigration into the US, by some accounts reaching 10,000 daily, poses a dilemma: continue to exacerbate illegal immigration, destroying the social contract and impoverishing the American proletariat, or share a portion of the surplus value with the American proletariat to maintain a semblance of social stability. The most reactionary and insane segment of the deep state, in collusion with international bourgeoisie (e.g., Soros, WEF), favors the former, while small and medium-sized US capitalists oppose it. Wall Street bourgeoisie, after being sidelined, is signaling it won’t allow the Biden group to proceed unchallenged, with 25 states, led by Texas, potentially rebelling against the federal government.
PRIMARY RIVAL: CHINA
Heading into the presidential elections, the US grapples with these contradictions, with the National Security Strategy identifying China as the main challenge. Statements by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA Director William Burns1 in early 2024 outline the US strategy against China2, emphasizing the shift from utilizing cheap Chinese labor for global manufacturing to confronting China’s move towards a state-planned economy under Xi Jinping. The US faces significant challenges to its global leadership, with the “American Dream” of economic vitality, diplomatic courage, and military strength fading, as acknowledged in recent publications by Foreign Affairs.
TRUMP AND THE STRATEGY OF GLOBAL CONTRACTION
American workers and small-to-medium producers seek to reject the harsh realities of neoliberal globalization. Trump’s rise to power signifies a major redirection in the global and domestic dominance strategy of the US bourgeoisie. Globally, a shift from the mad pursuit of a world empire to a strategy of global contraction, solidifying influence from the Western Hemisphere to the Pacific, is anticipated. Domestically, limited concessions to small and medium capitalists and workers, curbing illegal immigration, maintaining basic order, and preserving the fundamental framework of bourgeois democracy, constitutionalism, and the rule of law are expected.
- William Burns, Spycraft and Statecraft, Foreign Affairs,30 Ocak 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/cia-spycraft-and-statecraft-william-burns ↩︎
- For Jake Sullivan’s full speech to the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy-d2s3JDno ↩︎
