Attending the APEC Summit in the US, Xi’s meeting with Biden was low-tension and concluded with several mutual agreements. However, the future of the two countries’ relations doesn’t seem promising.

The Biden-Xi meeting was arguably the most anticipated and significant bilateral summit of 2023. Throughout the year, the two major nations clashed over several issues—from US technology sanctions, China’s alleged “spy balloons,” to Taiwan—without stable communication. Additionally, incidents like the hacking allegations against US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s emails by China marked a new low in US-China relations.

Following the relatively warm meeting with Xi, Biden stated, “We’ve returned to direct, open, and clear communication.” However, the meeting also exposed deep fissures in US-China relations, with little sign of near-future progress due to structural impasses stemming from American hegemony. Biden’s description of the US approach to China as “trust, but verify,” consciously invokes the spirit of the Cold War, channeling Ronald Reagan.

LOOKING AT THE CONTEXT

Considering the diplomatic relations between China and the US officially starting in 1973, their relations are at a historical low. Upon taking office, the Biden administration declared that “the primary challenge of the 21st century will be between us and China,” continuing the Asia-Pacific-focused strategy of the Trump era.

However, the Biden administration is navigating through troubled waters both domestically and internationally. The American media’s hyped-up narrative of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia failed, leading to discussions on reducing aid to Kiev. Additionally, the “Al-Aqsa Storm” initiated by Hamas exposed Israel’s vulnerability, bringing the Palestinian issue back to the forefront for the US. Despite focusing on the Asia-Pacific, the US faces a decision point on maintaining its fragmented hegemony, making China’s agreement to the meeting understandable given these developments.

Meanwhile, the US continues its strategy to encircle China in the Pacific. Recent developments in the Asia-Pacific include:

The US announced plans to open a NATO Office in Japan in mid-year, with Japan’s 2023 military budget doubling in proportion to its GDP from the previous year.

The US opened 7 military bases in the Philippines, including 4 new ones.

The US sold F-15 fighter jets to Indonesia in February 2022 in a $14 billion deal.

The US continued aggressive moves on Taiwan, with House Speaker Pelosi visiting Taiwan last year, and Taiwan’s separatist leader Tsai Ing-wen visiting Washington this year.

The US formed the “AUKUS” nuclearization program for the Pacific with the UK and Australia in 2021, and is enhancing the Quad alliance (US, Japan, India, Australia) by attempting to include South Korea. Biden nominated Kurt Campbell, a senior Indo-Pacific expert at the White House, as a top diplomat, signaling a strategic focus on the region.

In October, the US Commerce Department announced new sanctions on 12 Chinese companies for “providing technological support to Russia,” and further restricted chip exports to China. Over 1,300 Chinese entities have been sanctioned by the US, a number expected to grow. Despite the sanctions, China announced the development of its indigenous 5G chip, the P60, by Huawei.

CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY CONCEPT AND LIMITATIONS

Xi’s absence from recent UN and G20 Summits, and the delayed Xi-Biden meeting highlight China’s post-Mao strategy of economic development without drawing attention or engaging in conflicts. However, geopolitical shifts and increasing hostility from the US remind China of the necessity of historical inevitabilities. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Taliban officials were welcomed in Beijing, and after meetings between Xi Jinping and leaders from Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two countries agreed to resume diplomatic relations suspended for 7 years.

China also attempted to mediate between Israel and Palestine under the Belt and Road Initiative, showing the limits of its strategy to prioritize economic engagement for increasing its presence.

EFFECTS OF THE CHANGING INTERNATIONAL ORDER

International orders reflect the power balances of their creation times. The post-WWII order was explicitly an “American order,” centered on US interests. As states’ relative powers shift, the international order fails to reflect the actual power distribution among leading powers, leading to legitimacy questions and challenges by rising powers. Geopolitical shifts or perceived shifts in power balance prompt rising powers to become increasingly dissatisfied with the international order, leading to efforts to change the rules written by the once-dominant but now declining powers. US-China relations are experiencing this dynamic against a backdrop of structural issues.

WHITE HOUSE’S ANTI-CHINA STANCE TO INCREASE

Considering the upcoming US Presidential elections, Biden’s portrayal of a moderate stance on China relations is unlikely to be sustained in the long term. Republicans in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee accused Biden of not being tough enough on China and yielding to Xi’s demands in exchange for “a series of meaningless working groups” after the meeting. This suggests that the US administration is entering a period where anti-China rhetoric will increase. The “dictator” narrative was not a casual slip; it was part of initiating next year’s election strategy, despite Blinken’s apparent disappointment. Moreover, the US Department of Defense will continue its provocations through the Philippines and Taiwan under the “Advanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.” The upcoming general elections in Taiwan early next year are of great importance, and a potential defeat for the separatists could prompt the US to take more aggressive actions through the Philippines. Consequently, China attended the APEC to assess its internal economic stagnation and in response to its responsibility as the upcoming chair of the UN Security Council, conveying the message, “We are not the aggressors.” The future of US-China relations remains a pivotal geopolitical challenge of this century, as Biden indicated.