Beijing has played one of the most important cards against Washington’s moves on Taiwan. It has banned the sale of dual-use items and blacklisted US arms manufacturers. America admits its unpreparedness for a possible Taiwan crisis and fears the collapse of the West’s rules-based order.
China’s Ministry of Commerce has banned the sale of dual-use items to 28 American defense industry companies. In addition, 10 of them have been placed on Washington’s “unreliable entities” list due to their arms sales to Taiwan. General Dynamics, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Space & Security, and Raytheon are among them.
Dual-use items are defined as items that can be used for both civilian and defense purposes and contribute to increasing military potential. They are particularly key in designing, developing, producing, or using weapons of mass destruction and their delivery vehicles.

BAN ON THOSE ON THE BLACKLISTED
The Commerce Department announced on Thursday that the move aimed to protect national security and “fulfill international obligations, including the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons” in response to “growing concerns.”
It was stated that individuals and organizations on the blacklist will be banned from importing and exporting to China, making new investments in China, and their senior executives will be banned from entering the country.
Before this latest major wave, the Dragon announced last Friday that it would impose sanctions on seven U.S. defense industry companies, including Boeing subsidiary Insitu, due to Washington’s military aid to Taiwan.
THE ISLAND’S LARGEST WEAPONS SUPPLIER
Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory per the “One China” principle. China has called for a peaceful resolution of the issue but has stated that it will not hesitate to use military force against the separatists if necessary. Washington also officially recognized the “One China” principle but continued cooperating with Taipei, especially in military matters, much to Beijing’s ire. The US is Taiwan’s largest arms supplier. Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned US arms sales to the island, accusing Washington of stoking tensions.

‘INTERFERENCE IN INTERNAL AFFAIRS’
US President Joe Biden agreed to provide Taiwan with $571.3 million in defense support in December. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said at a regular press conference last Friday that the actions in question “interfere in China’s internal affairs and undermine the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
CIA PROPHECY
China has stepped up military measures around Taiwan in recent years amid increasing provocations. It has held three major military exercises since Lai Ching-te came to power in Taiwan in May.
China’s recent maneuvers around Taiwan worry the US not only militarily or politically but also economically. According to the New York Times (NYT), Washington-Beijing relations risk a “complete collapse” due to the Taiwan crisis. Last year, the US increased military aid to the island following CIA Director William Burns’ claims that China would occupy Taiwan by 2027. According to Burns, the order for the invasion preparations was given by Chinese President Xi Jinping himself.

QUARANTINE SCENARIO
Again last year, American media outlets suggested that China could implement a “quarantine” in and around Taiwan instead of a military operation. According to this scenario, Beijing could impose a complete blockade on the island without firing a single shot. It could create an environment where commercial ships and aircraft can enter and exit Taiwan only according to China’s conditions.
A BIGGER SHOCK THAN COVID-19
The NYT writes that a US response would be inevitable if China intervened in Taiwan and speaks of its “enormous effects”: “It would potentially lead to a global economic crisis much worse than the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
The newspaper, which admits that “America is not ready at the moment,” refers to the conclusion of a report previously published by the House of Representatives: “The US does not have a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of a conflict with China.”
IT WILL HIT WITH THE MOST ADVANCED CHIPS
One of the most obvious effects of such a crisis for the US will be related to semiconductors. Taiwan-based Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips. Industries ranging from automobiles to medical devices depend on these chips.
At this point, the NYT explains the US’s biggest concern: “If Taiwan’s chip production is shut down, the global economy could enter a deep recession. If TSMC’s factories fall into Chinese hands, which also use TSMC’s chips, Beijing would gain a competitive advantage, including artificial intelligence technology development.
IT’S NOT LIKE THAT, IT’S NOT LIKE THAT…
The newspaper assesses that if the US does not take action against the Chinese “invasion or quarantine”, it will void its commitments to Taiwan, and its allies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines will also become vulnerable to economic strain. This reality will call into question America’s relations with its closest allies.
On the other hand, the newspaper also confronts that sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia or Iran could be “devastating for the global economic system”, given China’s central role in supply chains.
‘OUR LEADERS MUST FACE THE TRUTH’
The NYT notes that the US’s allies and neutral countries may refuse to cooperate with an American-led sanctions regime, given the huge costs to their economies. In addition, according to the NYT, many Americans will find the potential increase in consumer goods prices untenable.
The American publication concludes: “Our leaders must face the truth: China cannot be excluded or expelled from the global economy. Instead, a positive vision of responding to the Taiwan crisis is needed to defend the global economy.”

RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE GOVERNMENT
The NYT’s “positive vision” consists of the following recommendations:
- The Federal Reserve should coordinate with other countries’ central banks to provide liquidity to prevent a global financial collapse when the crisis begins.
- The US and its allies should establish and finance an Economic Security Cooperation Board open to all nations except “rogue states.”
- Washington should also urgently focus on domestic manufacturing of critical products from China, including active pharmaceutical ingredients and UAVs, on which the US has become heavily dependent.
- The US should adopt a gradual reduction approach to reduce dependence on non-critical consumer goods from China.
THE END OF THE RULES-BASED SYSTEM
The paper acknowledges the difficulty of implementing these proposals but concludes the article by emphasizing Taiwan’s importance to the United States:
“If China invades or quarantines Taiwan, it would not only be targeting an island nation. It would also be attempting to forcibly reshape the Asia-Pacific regional order and undermine the rules-based global economy. An unplanned Taiwan crisis risks shaking the foundations of American prosperity and security.”
This article is retrieved from the Aydinlik Newspaper website.
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